Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.95 – 71.38

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±16.6

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 6.85Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 21.64Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 162.46Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.8 ±17.7

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 48.45Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 9.55Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 13.38Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11265, 9309, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11265, 9309, 8044

Auto

39.7 22%

Teleop

112.0 63%

Endgame

25.6 14%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3616, 5045, 11287

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3616, 5045, 11287

Auto

26.1 37%

Teleop

38.4 55%

Endgame

5.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.6
Score range: 50–212
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.5Season APEX273.8

39.7Auto26.1

112Teleop38.4

25.6Endgame5.2

41Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	43	19
endgame	31	27
foul	5	30
total	96	89

Result

Final score

96 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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