Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.22 – 145.5

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.2 ±15.9

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 62.99Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 183.9Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -2.67Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.5 ±12.8

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 35.03Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 13.81Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 96.66Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 4400, 7474

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 4400, 7474

Auto

40.7 17%

Teleop

153.9 64%

Endgame

45.6 19%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9405, 10217, 3039

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9405, 10217, 3039

Auto

19.3 13%

Teleop

81.0 57%

Endgame

42.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score244.2pts

Blue projected score145.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.7
Score range: 125–265
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 117.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.2Season APEX410.5

40.7Auto19.3

153.9Teleop81

45.6Endgame42.9

28Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	30
teleop	195	36
endgame	46	49
foul	0	15
total	279	130

Result

Final score

279 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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