Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.71 – 111.71

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.4 ±20.5

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 16.84Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -18.87Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 17.74Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.9 ±17.3

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 98.18Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 13.04Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 0.49Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3606, 5863, 11107

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3606, 5863, 11107

Auto

21.0 100%

Teleop

-12.5 0%

Endgame

-2.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 1927, 10943

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 1927, 10943

Auto

23.1 21%

Teleop

72.6 66%

Endgame

14.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.7pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96
Score range: -5–133
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.4Season APEX235.9

21Auto23.1

-12.5Teleop72.6

-2.9Endgame14.3

50Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	35
teleop	10	50
endgame	2	24
foul	5	0
total	34	109

Result

Final score

34 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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