Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.45 – 102.97

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.3 ±17.7

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 29.5Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 7.13Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 22.82Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.3 ±12.9

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX -5.89Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 42.4Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 66.46Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10961, 1421, 10309

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 1421, 10309

Auto

20.3 44%

Teleop

14.8 32%

Endgame

11.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9717, 3753, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9717, 3753, 2992

Auto

17.9 19%

Teleop

57.5 61%

Endgame

18.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.5pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.5
Score range: 38–124
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.3Season APEX568.3

20.3Auto17.9

14.8Teleop57.5

11.5Endgame18.1

116Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	26	108
endgame	8	64
foul	5	0
total	57	187

Result

Final score

57 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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