Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.92 – 37.31

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±17.7

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX -10.3Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 27.02Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 7.2Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.3 ±13.3

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX -3.87Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -11.7Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 52.88Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9153, 9503, 538

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9153, 9503, 538

Auto

16.7 87%

Teleop

-9.1 0%

Endgame

11.7 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4107, 10101, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4107, 10101, 6184

Auto

5.4 13%

Teleop

19.4 48%

Endgame

15.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.9pts

Blue projected score37.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 3–58
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.1Season APEX373.3

16.7Auto5.4

-9.1Teleop19.4

11.7Endgame15.6

76Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	15	44
endgame	4	28
foul	0	0
total	40	88

Result

Final score

40 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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