Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.59 – 203.08

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.9 ±14.1

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 11.09Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 80.5Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 21Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.8 ±15.2

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 71.72Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -8.24Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 139.6Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10929, 10661, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10929, 10661, 4336

Auto

23.7 22%

Teleop

49.0 46%

Endgame

33.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4087, 11287, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4087, 11287, 8044

Auto

50.5 25%

Teleop

113.8 57%

Endgame

36.4 18%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score203.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.5
Score range: 92–224
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.9Season APEX622.8

23.7Auto50.5

49Teleop113.8

33.5Endgame36.4

78Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	64
teleop	76	239
endgame	42	58
foul	5	5
total	132	366

Result

Final score

132 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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