Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.16 – 126.51

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.3 ±16.4

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -4.87Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 99.24Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 49.79Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.2 ±17.2

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 1.95Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 77.31Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 47.25Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7474, 3039, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7474, 3039, 364

Auto

28.3 19%

Teleop

80.9 54%

Endgame

41.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11265, 456, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11265, 456, 3616

Auto

23.2 21%

Teleop

62.1 55%

Endgame

27.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.2pts

Blue projected score126.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 106–165
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.3Season APEX279.2

28.3Auto23.2

80.9Teleop62.1

41.7Endgame27.7

20Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	25
teleop	102	67
endgame	14	54
foul	5	0
total	160	146

Result

Final score

160 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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