Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
208.07 – 112.06
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
293 – 119
Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.6 ±13.5
Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 25.89Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 175.84Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 6.34Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±16.4
Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 37.71Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
11345Long Beach RoboBearcats
Provisional
Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 10.39Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 63.96Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9405, 4400, 9309
86
/ 100 compatProjected
208.1 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9405, 4400, 9309
Auto
49.5 24%
Teleop
122.1 60%
Endgame
30.6 15%
Strengths
- · 4400 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7094, 11345, 2556
62
/ 100 compatProjected
112.1 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 7094, 11345, 2556
Auto
38.5 33%
Teleop
62.6 54%
Endgame
14.0 12%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score208.1pts
Blue projected score112.1pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 96
- Score range
- 92–228
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
417.6Season APEX370.4
49.5Auto38.5
122.1Teleop62.6
30.6Endgame14
125Consistency120
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 23 |
| teleop | 162 | 54 |
| endgame | 78 | 37 |
| foul | 25 | 5 |
| total | 293 | 119 |
Result
Final score
293 – 119
Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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