Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.87 – 75.83

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±19.3

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 8.02Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 19.92Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 13.93Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±16.9

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 53.46Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 11.24Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 11.13Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10217, 9734, 11343

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10217, 9734, 11343

Auto

7.3 19%

Teleop

13.3 34%

Endgame

18.0 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 10655, 5045

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 10655, 5045

Auto

7.4 10%

Teleop

47.9 62%

Endgame

21.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.9pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34
Score range: 21–97
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.8Season APEX351.7

7.3Auto7.4

13.3Teleop47.9

18Endgame21.4

93Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	28	58
endgame	13	13
foul	0	5
total	55	91

Result

Final score

55 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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