Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.17 – 21.91

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±17.3

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 54Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 63.13Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 12.04Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.9 ±20.5

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 15.49Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 10.91Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -4.49Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4336, 1912, 9734

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4336, 1912, 9734

Auto

26.7 21%

Teleop

67.8 53%

Endgame

32.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10309, 11343, 5863

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10309, 11343, 5863

Auto

15.9 100%

Teleop

-3.2 0%

Endgame

3.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.2pts

Blue projected score21.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.3
Score range: -4–155
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.9Season APEX178.9

26.7Auto15.9

67.8Teleop-3.2

32.9Endgame3

73Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	15	3
endgame	32	2
foul	0	0
total	70	17

Result

Final score

70 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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