Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.05 – 122.81

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.1 ±13.9

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 73.64Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 50.99Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 10.42Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.9 ±18.2

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 12.99Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 53.92Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 55.9Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1912, 6998, 10943

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 6998, 10943

Auto

32.9 24%

Teleop

79.3 57%

Endgame

27.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9717, 590, 2221

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9717, 590, 2221

Auto

22.7 18%

Teleop

70.3 55%

Endgame

34.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 102–156
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.1Season APEX257.9

32.9Auto22.7

79.3Teleop70.3

27.8Endgame34.3

12Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	76	27
endgame	5	15
foul	0	20
total	99	75

Result

Final score

99 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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