Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.56 – 94.48

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.8 ±16.4

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 62.08Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 6.2Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -10.72Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±20

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 28.11Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 18.19Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 48.18Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2992, 1421, 11287

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 1421, 11287

Auto

23.6 42%

Teleop

34.5 62%

Endgame

-2.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9503, 3606, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9503, 3606, 6184

Auto

11.4 16%

Teleop

51.9 74%

Endgame

7.3 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.6pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: 37–115
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 114.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.8Season APEX189.7

23.6Auto11.4

34.5Teleop51.9

-2.1Endgame7.3

74Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	57	55
endgame	24	35
foul	0	0
total	102	115

Result

Final score

102 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.