Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.28 – 56.17

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±17.3

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 4.48Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 28.08Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -13.28Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±17.7

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 68.19Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -15.28Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 3.26Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1927, 10961, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1927, 10961, 10101

Auto

-7.4 0%

Teleop

2.6 100%

Endgame

6.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 456, 7474, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 456, 7474, 4336

Auto

8.6 14%

Teleop

28.5 47%

Endgame

23.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19.3pts

Blue projected score56.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: -2–77
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.7Season APEX268

-7.4Auto8.6

2.6Teleop28.5

6.7Endgame23

71Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	20	70
endgame	14	16
foul	5	10
total	56	126

Result

Final score

56 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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