Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.7 – 151.82

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±20.5

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 9.09Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 8.93Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 12.68Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±16.9

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 12.24Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -9.03Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 148.61Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5045, 11343, 11107

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5045, 11343, 11107

Auto

20.7 57%

Teleop

15.2 42%

Endgame

0.7 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 538, 11345, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 11345, 4400

Auto

26.0 18%

Teleop

77.3 53%

Endgame

42.4 29%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.7pts

Blue projected score151.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.1
Score range: 10–173
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 114.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.6Season APEX425.5

20.7Auto26

15.2Teleop77.3

0.7Endgame42.4

139Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	62
teleop	12	145
endgame	14	47
foul	30	0
total	70	254

Result

Final score

70 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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