Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.94 – 152.27

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±17.2

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX -4.9Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 37.33Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -18.49Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.7 ±11

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 81.04Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX -0.1Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 71.33Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4107, 7094, 11265

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4107, 7094, 11265

Auto

14.5 100%

Teleop

-5.9 0%

Endgame

-4.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10661, 10217, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 10217, 1912

Auto

17.0 11%

Teleop

98.4 66%

Endgame

33.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score13.9pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.3
Score range: -6–172
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.1Season APEX463.7

14.5Auto17

-5.9Teleop98.4

-4.6Endgame33.7

165Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	43	126
endgame	16	50
foul	0	0
total	75	190

Result

Final score

75 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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