Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.45 – 277.83

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.4 ±15.9

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 10.1Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 50.61Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 35.74Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 623.9 ±11.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 110.43Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 85.16Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 82.24Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9734, 8808, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9734, 8808, 3753

Auto

23.2 28%

Teleop

36.0 43%

Endgame

25.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 2183, 3039

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 2183, 3039

Auto

56.6 21%

Teleop

160.8 59%

Endgame

53.8 20%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.5pts

Blue projected score277.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.4
Score range: 77–297
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.4Season APEX623.9

23.2Auto56.6

36Teleop160.8

25.1Endgame53.8

31Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	87
teleop	76	221
endgame	45	104
foul	5	5
total	142	417

Result

Final score

142 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 92.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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