Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.63 – 190.47

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±17.2

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 23.9Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 60.15Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 8.58Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 566.8 ±16.4

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 53.87Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 63.44Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 73.16Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9405, 3616, 10655

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9405, 3616, 10655

Auto

28.2 33%

Teleop

33.6 39%

Endgame

24.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 590, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 590, 4087

Auto

55.6 29%

Teleop

103.2 53%

Endgame

36.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.6pts

Blue projected score190.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.8
Score range: 74–209
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 106.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.8Season APEX566.8

28.2Auto55.6

33.6Teleop103.2

24.5Endgame36.1

141Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	39
teleop	48	98
endgame	13	62
foul	0	10
total	97	209

Result

Final score

97 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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