Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.43 – 71.4

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±15

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 61.49Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -21.6Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -4.46Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±13.9

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 63.62Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 14.41Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -6.63Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 456, 9309, 5863

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 456, 9309, 5863

Auto

15.4 38%

Teleop

12.2 30%

Endgame

12.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2221, 1421, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2221, 1421, 10101

Auto

19.4 30%

Teleop

34.6 53%

Endgame

11.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.4pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36
Score range: 16–90
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.7Season APEX304.5

15.4Auto19.4

12.2Teleop34.6

12.8Endgame11.3

86Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	47	30
endgame	26	29
foul	5	0
total	90	73

Result

Final score

90 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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