Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
64.76 – 86.63
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
120 – 39
Prediction missed · off by 51.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.6 ±16.9
Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -0.56Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 30.6Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9503EF5 CHAOS
Provisional
Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 34.72Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.2 ±18.2
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.08Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86
Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 17.77Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92
3606BearMetal
Provisional
Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 38.78Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5045, 2556, 9503
52
/ 100 compatProjected
64.8 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5045, 2556, 9503
Auto
14.2 26%
Teleop
32.5 60%
Endgame
7.7 14%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10943, 4336, 3606
47
/ 100 compatProjected
86.6 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 10943, 4336, 3606
Auto
18.2 23%
Teleop
55.5 69%
Endgame
6.7 8%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.5
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score64.8pts
Blue projected score86.6pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -21.9
- Score range
- 45–107
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
349.6Season APEX181.2
14.2Auto18.2
32.5Teleop55.5
7.7Endgame6.7
170Consistency53
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 14 |
| teleop | 73 | 23 |
| endgame | 19 | 2 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 120 | 39 |
Result
Final score
120 – 39
Prediction missed · off by 51.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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