Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.95 – 131.79

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±12.8

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 27.33Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 63.53Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 2.09Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.4 ±16.8

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 62.57Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 59.74Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 9.48Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10217, 456, 9153

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10217, 456, 9153

Auto

12.9 15%

Teleop

41.5 49%

Endgame

30.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3753, 6998, 3606

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3753, 6998, 3606

Auto

30.3 24%

Teleop

67.3 53%

Endgame

28.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score131.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.8
Score range: 67–158
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.6Season APEX460.4

12.9Auto30.3

41.5Teleop67.3

30.3Endgame28.4

54Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	34
teleop	34	50
endgame	28	14
foul	0	30
total	71	128

Result

Final score

71 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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