Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.96 – 9.94

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±16.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 67.27Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX -15.75Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 7.44Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.9 ±16.9

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -41.73Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 9.51Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 42.16Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 11287, 7094

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 11287, 7094

Auto

22.9 42%

Teleop

14.5 26%

Endgame

17.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7474, 538, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7474, 538, 2992

Auto

14.5 100%

Teleop

3.1 22%

Endgame

-3.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59pts

Blue projected score9.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49
Score range: -9–78
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX425.9

22.9Auto14.5

14.5Teleop3.1

17.6Endgame-3.6

91Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	76	64
endgame	32	37
foul	5	0
total	132	113

Result

Final score

132 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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