Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.8 – 8.69

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 116.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±18.2

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 11.77Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 22.94Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 19.09Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.4 ±16.4

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 32.59Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -40.53Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 16.63Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11343, 9717, 10929

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11343, 9717, 10929

Auto

7.3 13%

Teleop

44.5 80%

Endgame

4.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 11345, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 11345, 8808

Auto

19.0 100%

Teleop

-26.9 0%

Endgame

20.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.8pts

Blue projected score8.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.1
Score range: -10–73
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 107.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.1Season APEX444.4

7.3Auto19

44.5Teleop-26.9

4Endgame20

171Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	14	138
endgame	10	58
foul	0	5
total	39	226

Result

Final score

39 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 116.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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