Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.94 – 121.61

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 120.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±20

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 7.56Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 40.97Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 6.41Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.8 ±15.6

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 14.86Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 80.69Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 26.06Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9153, 11107, 10655

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9153, 11107, 10655

Auto

20.5 37%

Teleop

11.8 21%

Endgame

23.2 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 590, 8044, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 590, 8044, 1912

Auto

37.3 32%

Teleop

63.8 55%

Endgame

14.3 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score121.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: 36–141
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.6Season APEX645.8

20.5Auto37.3

11.8Teleop63.8

23.2Endgame14.3

144Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	68
teleop	8	219
endgame	19	65
foul	0	0
total	44	352

Result

Final score

44 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 120.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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