Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.35 – 306.06

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±13.9

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 17.96Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 62.91Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -27.52Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 688.5 ±10.4

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 152.94Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 84.99Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 68.13Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 2183, 5863

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 2183, 5863

Auto

11.7 29%

Teleop

13.8 35%

Endgame

14.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4400, 364, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 364, 4087

Auto

51.5 17%

Teleop

202.6 68%

Endgame

45.7 15%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.49 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.4pts

Blue projected score306.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -252.7
Score range: 35–324
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 97.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324Season APEX688.5

11.7Auto51.5

13.8Teleop202.6

14.5Endgame45.7

58Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	52
teleop	107	177
endgame	49	75
foul	0	0
total	193	304

Result

Final score

193 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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