Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.84 – 95.43

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496 ±12.2

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 48.48Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 58.56Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 17.8Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.3 ±20

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 36.9Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 34.06Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 24.47Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3753, 3616, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3753, 3616, 10217

Auto

27.6 27%

Teleop

56.2 55%

Endgame

18.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1927, 10309, 9405

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1927, 10309, 9405

Auto

21.1 24%

Teleop

62.4 72%

Endgame

3.6 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.8pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: 77–143
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 98.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496Season APEX160.3

27.6Auto21.1

56.2Teleop62.4

18.4Endgame3.6

8Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	60	7
endgame	19	9
foul	0	15
total	101	47

Result

Final score

101 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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