Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.06 – 49.85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±17.7

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 1.37Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 71.33Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 41.36Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.5 ±17.7

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 37.86Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 6.65Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 5.34Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11265, 2221, 6998

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11265, 2221, 6998

Auto

21.1 21%

Teleop

49.1 50%

Endgame

28.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10961, 9734, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 9734, 4107

Auto

15.7 42%

Teleop

-9.5 0%

Endgame

31.6 84%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.1pts

Blue projected score49.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.2
Score range: 32–132
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 99.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.3Season APEX224.5

21.1Auto15.7

49.1Teleop-9.5

28Endgame31.6

169Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	13
teleop	32	32
endgame	20	23
foul	0	5
total	89	73

Result

Final score

89 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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