Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.26 – 63.29

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±13.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -3.82Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 18.94Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 21.14Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±17.7

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 54.13Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -4.67Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 13.83Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10101, 10929, 3039

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 10929, 3039

Auto

6.6 20%

Teleop

-0.7 0%

Endgame

27.4 82%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3606, 5045, 7094

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3606, 5045, 7094

Auto

22.2 41%

Teleop

35.4 65%

Endgame

-3.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.3pts

Blue projected score63.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 18–81
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 101.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.6Season APEX207.6

6.6Auto22.2

-0.7Teleop35.4

27.4Endgame-3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	18
teleop	26	13
endgame	35	3
foul	0	5
total	71	39

Result

Final score

71 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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