Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.26 – 26.01

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±19.3

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 2.51Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 24.28Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -4.53Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.1 ±19.7

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -21.98Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 20.08Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 27.91Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8808, 9503, 7474

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 9503, 7474

Auto

17.6 0%

Teleop

-12.7 100%

Endgame

-9.3 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11345, 1912, 11107

/ 100 compat

Projected

26 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11345, 1912, 11107

Auto

21.5 77%

Teleop

-5.2 0%

Endgame

11.7 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score26pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 3–45
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.8Season APEX279.1

17.6Auto21.5

-12.7Teleop-5.2

-9.3Endgame11.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	30
teleop	46	37
endgame	0	11
foul	5	0
total	63	78

Result

Final score

63 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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