Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.14 – 166.69

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 94.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.7 ±12.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 61.2Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -6.32Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 118.26Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.8 ±16.4

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 65.46Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 6.68Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 94.55Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 10943, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 10943, 4400

Auto

22.0 13%

Teleop

91.4 54%

Endgame

56.1 33%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 456, 10655, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 456, 10655, 364

Auto

29.8 18%

Teleop

115.2 68%

Endgame

25.2 15%

Strengths

· 364 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.1pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 149–191
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 97.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.7Season APEX357.8

22Auto29.8

91.4Teleop115.2

56.1Endgame25.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	3
teleop	204	57
endgame	64	54
foul	5	0
total	310	114

Result

Final score

310 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 94.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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