Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.29 – 53.75

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±17.7

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 18.97Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 7.18Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 17.14Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±15.9

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 48.4Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 10.66Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX -5.31Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 11287, 9717

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 11287, 9717

Auto

14.2 35%

Teleop

13.7 33%

Endgame

13.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 10309, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 10309, 10217

Auto

7.7 13%

Teleop

45.3 79%

Endgame

4.5 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.3pts

Blue projected score53.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 25–72
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 97.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.7Season APEX319.8

14.2Auto7.7

13.7Teleop45.3

13Endgame4.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	15
teleop	53	82
endgame	12	14
foul	0	20
total	74	131

Result

Final score

74 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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