Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.59 – 122.23

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805.8 ±9.8

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 176.4Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 89.74Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 58.45Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±16.9

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 0.73Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 121.31Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 0.19Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 2992, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 2992, 364

Auto

67.8 21%

Teleop

188.4 59%

Endgame

63.0 20%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11345, 4087, 9717

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11345, 4087, 9717

Auto

31.8 28%

Teleop

55.9 49%

Endgame

27.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score324.6pts

Blue projected score122.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.4
Score range: 96–351
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805.8Season APEX376.5

67.8Auto31.8

188.4Teleop55.9

63Endgame27

7Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	28
teleop	201	26
endgame	12	10
foul	10	5
total	287	69

Result

Final score

287 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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