Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.71 – 113.67

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±15

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 17.96Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 20.13Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 30.62Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±13.5

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 49.03Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 68.92Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX -4.28Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4336, 538, 9405

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4336, 538, 9405

Auto

16.1 23%

Teleop

35.8 52%

Endgame

17.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2992, 2221, 9153

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 2221, 9153

Auto

21.9 20%

Teleop

61.2 55%

Endgame

28.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.7pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: 52–131
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.8Season APEX428.1

16.1Auto21.9

35.8Teleop61.2

17.2Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	36	65
endgame	19	36
foul	0	0
total	81	130

Result

Final score

81 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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