Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.02 – 141.55

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±20

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX -4.12Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 37.1Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 0.04Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±11.7

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 65.75Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 28.18Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 47.62Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9734, 3616, 1927

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9734, 3616, 1927

Auto

17.2 54%

Teleop

0.7 2%

Endgame

14.0 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4087, 2556, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4087, 2556, 1421

Auto

36.5 25%

Teleop

77.0 52%

Endgame

34.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score141.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.5
Score range: 16–159
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 94.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.6Season APEX520.9

17.2Auto36.5

0.7Teleop77

14Endgame34.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	37
teleop	64	77
endgame	31	20
foul	20	0
total	147	134

Result

Final score

147 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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