Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.06 – 32.74

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.1 ±13

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 82.2Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -9.19Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 25.05Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±17.7

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -10.37Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 8.18Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 34.93Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 5863, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 5863, 4107

Auto

31.8 32%

Teleop

64.9 66%

Endgame

2.0 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9309, 11343, 6998

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 11343, 6998

Auto

21.5 85%

Teleop

7.7 30%

Endgame

-3.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.1pts

Blue projected score32.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.3
Score range: 16–115
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 95.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.1Season APEX366.8

31.8Auto21.5

64.9Teleop7.7

2Endgame-3.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	33
teleop	18	35
endgame	7	0
foul	15	0
total	80	68

Result

Final score

80 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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