Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.44 – 92.33

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±15.9

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 54.33Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 13.6Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 8.51Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±20.5

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 54.33Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 10.89Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 27.11Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 3753, 590

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 3753, 590

Auto

24.7 42%

Teleop

33.8 57%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9503, 11265, 10961

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9503, 11265, 10961

Auto

11.3 14%

Teleop

53.1 65%

Endgame

17.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.4pts

Blue projected score92.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.9
Score range: 60–108
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 90.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.6Season APEX175.8

24.7Auto11.3

33.8Teleop53.1

0.3Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	8
teleop	142	27
endgame	70	17
foul	5	40
total	269	92

Result

Final score

269 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 96.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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