Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.89 – 46.39

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 8

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.7 ±20.5

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.3Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 8.64Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 4.95Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±17.3

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 1.22Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -4.54Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 49.71Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10309, 9717, 10655

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10309, 9717, 10655

Auto

10.2 73%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

3.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5045, 7474, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5045, 7474, 10101

Auto

18.0 42%

Teleop

25.3 59%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.9pts

Blue projected score46.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 4–63
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.7Season APEX297.4

10.2Auto18

0.2Teleop25.3

3.6Endgame-0.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	2
teleop	34	6
endgame	3	0
foul	0	0
total	51	8

Result

Final score

51 – 8

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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