Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.78 – 100.61

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.7 ±13.5

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 94.45Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 27.76Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 4.57Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.3 ±16.4

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 27.96Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 28.75Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 43.9Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 4336, 7094

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 4336, 7094

Auto

29.4 24%

Teleop

78.0 65%

Endgame

12.8 11%

Strengths

· 364 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11287, 9405, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11287, 9405, 8808

Auto

10.3 11%

Teleop

53.4 59%

Endgame

27.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.8pts

Blue projected score100.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.2
Score range: 84–144
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.7Season APEX362.3

29.4Auto10.3

78Teleop53.4

12.8Endgame27

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	28
teleop	78	23
endgame	11	1
foul	0	0
total	129	52

Result

Final score

129 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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