Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.3 – 74.6

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±15

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 11.94Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 5.32Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 35.04Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.8 ±20

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 35.04Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 31.18Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 8.38Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10929, 6184, 2221

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10929, 6184, 2221

Auto

16.2 30%

Teleop

28.3 52%

Endgame

9.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11107, 3039, 1927

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11107, 3039, 1927

Auto

13.6 18%

Teleop

36.3 49%

Endgame

24.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score52.3pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 35–92
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 93.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.5Season APEX240.8

16.2Auto13.6

28.3Teleop36.3

9.9Endgame24

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	29
teleop	71	34
endgame	51	30
foul	5	0
total	137	93

Result

Final score

137 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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