Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.99 – 108.79

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±13.3

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 20.25Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 20.17Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 16.57Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.6 ±12.4

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 38Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 20.25Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 50.54Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2183, 6998, 1421

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 6998, 1421

Auto

19.2 44%

Teleop

17.5 40%

Endgame

6.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2556, 538, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2556, 538, 10661

Auto

18.8 19%

Teleop

56.1 56%

Endgame

25.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score108.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 41–125
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 88.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.6Season APEX398.6

19.2Auto18.8

17.5Teleop56.1

6.6Endgame25.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	17
teleop	86	51
endgame	29	52
foul	0	0
total	162	120

Result

Final score

162 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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