Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.96 – 80.58

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 52.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.8 ±16.9

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 18.29Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 85.28Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 18.39Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.6 ±14.5

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 46.29Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 16Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 18.29Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10943, 2992, 9734

/ 100 compat

Projected

122 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10943, 2992, 9734

Auto

27.7 23%

Teleop

76.6 64%

Endgame

15.3 13%

Strengths

· 2992 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3616, 9309, 4107

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3616, 9309, 4107

Auto

16.0 22%

Teleop

41.4 56%

Endgame

16.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122pts

Blue projected score80.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.4
Score range: 64–139
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 92.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.8Season APEX306.6

27.7Auto16

76.6Teleop41.4

15.3Endgame16

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	26
teleop	8	24
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	47	50

Result

Final score

47 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.