Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.14 – 36.72

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.6 ±16.1

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 4.86Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 82Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 4.28Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.1 ±14.1

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 3Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 4.86Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 28.86Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9153, 8044, 11345

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9153, 8044, 11345

Auto

26.4 31%

Teleop

52.3 61%

Endgame

6.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5863, 10217, 10961

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5863, 10217, 10961

Auto

8.3 23%

Teleop

8.3 23%

Endgame

20.0 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.1pts

Blue projected score36.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 19–109
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 98.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.6Season APEX338.1

26.4Auto8.3

52.3Teleop8.3

6.9Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	8
teleop	10	12
endgame	13	0
foul	5	0
total	65	20

Result

Final score

65 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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