Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.45 – 64.01

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.6 ±14.5

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 6.83Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 87.8Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 7.82Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.5 ±22.5

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 25.09Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 24.86Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 14.06Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9309, 2183, 538

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 2183, 538

Auto

22.3 23%

Teleop

50.0 52%

Endgame

24.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 590, 1927, 11265

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 590, 1927, 11265

Auto

10.6 20%

Teleop

23.8 45%

Endgame

18.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.5pts

Blue projected score64pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.4
Score range: 38–128
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 142.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.6Season APEX193.5

22.3Auto10.6

50Teleop23.8

24.7Endgame18.2

13Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	10
teleop	30	22
endgame	7	5
foul	5	0
total	56	37

Result

Final score

56 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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