Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415 – 231.87

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 193.32Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 48.52Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 173.16Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592 ±10.4

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 120.18Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 25.4Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 86.29Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 9405, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

415 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 9405, 8044

Auto

77.0 19%

Teleop

245.7 61%

Endgame

78.1 19%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4087, 10217, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4087, 10217, 2556

Auto

39.1 17%

Teleop

137.4 61%

Endgame

50.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score415pts

Blue projected score231.9pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183.1
Score range: 207–440
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 769 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX592

77Auto39.1

245.7Teleop137.4

78.1Endgame50.5

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	52
teleop	261	123
endgame	102	79
foul	25	25
total	490	279

Result

Final score

490 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 61.1 pts

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