Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
408.69 – 229.22
90%10%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
454 – 252
Prediction correct · off by 34 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 191.29Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 46.47Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 170.93Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592 ±10.4
Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 119.62Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 169Event APEX 24.34Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 85.26Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4400, 9405, 8044
79
/ 100 compatProjected
408.7 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 4400, 9405, 8044
Auto
75.2 19%
Teleop
239.6 61%
Endgame
77.3 20%
Strengths
- · 4400 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4087, 10217, 2556
80
/ 100 compatProjected
229.2 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 4087, 10217, 2556
Auto
37.6 17%
Teleop
134.7 60%
Endgame
52.1 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score408.7pts
Blue projected score229.2pts
Red win probability90%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 179.5
- Score range
- 204–434
- Upset likelihood
- 10%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
686Season APEX592
75.2Auto37.6
239.6Teleop134.7
77.3Endgame52.1
0Consistency9
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 88 | 50 |
| teleop | 283 | 158 |
| endgame | 83 | 39 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 454 | 252 |
Result
Final score
454 – 252
Prediction correct · off by 34 pts
Match videos
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