FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

421.91 – 433.96

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.6 ±8.7

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 168.49Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 117.46Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 135.96Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 746.4 ±8.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 81.59Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 176.96Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 175.41Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 3637, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 341, 3637, 1676

Auto

91.3 23%

Teleop

222.4 55%

Endgame

91.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 5895, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

434 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 5895, 484

Auto

97.8 23%

Teleop

237.2 55%

Endgame

97.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score421.9pts

Blue projected score434pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 373–483
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741.6Season APEX746.4

91.3Auto97.8

222.4Teleop237.2

91.8Endgame97.7

116Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	99
teleop	163	152
endgame	109	35
foul	5	0
total	363	286

Result

Final score

363 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 pts

Match videos

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