FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

431.51 – 377.61

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

441 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.4 ±8.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 81.95Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 175.14Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 174.42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.9 ±9.3

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 55.24Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 158.63Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 163.74Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 5895, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 5895, 484

Auto

94.8 22%

Teleop

242.3 56%

Endgame

94.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 103, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 555, 103, 1403

Auto

76.2 20%

Teleop

201.4 54%

Endgame

96.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score431.5pts

Blue projected score377.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 329–481
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 816 vs event baseline 270.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.4Season APEX660.9

94.8Auto76.2

242.3Teleop201.4

94Endgame96.1

76Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	81
teleop	208	168
endgame	115	126
foul	5	0
total	441	375

Result

Final score

441 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 pts

Match videos

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