FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.6 – 386.96

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 501

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.9 ±9.3

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 125.35Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 132.63Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 131.62Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.1 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 143.84Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 141.53Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 101.59Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 1089, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 1089, 1218

Auto

72.5 19%

Teleop

217.1 56%

Endgame

97.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 193, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

387 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 193, 3314

Auto

63.8 17%

Teleop

223.8 58%

Endgame

95.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score389.6pts

Blue projected score387pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 338–439
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 269.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.9Season APEX636.1

72.5Auto63.8

217.1Teleop223.8

97.7Endgame95.7

88Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	92
teleop	200	329
endgame	116	75
foul	0	5
total	358	501

Result

Final score

358 – 501

Prediction missed · off by 72.8 pts

Match videos

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