FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.68 – 436.73

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

401 – 477

Prediction missed · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.4 ±8.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 86.46Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 177.03Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 177.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 788.1 ±8.7

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 156.46Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 138.85Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 141.42Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 5895, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 5895, 484

Auto

91.1 21%

Teleop

248.1 56%

Endgame

102.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 11, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 11, 1640

Auto

86.6 20%

Teleop

248.8 58%

Endgame

92.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score440.7pts

Blue projected score436.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.9
Score range: 389–489
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 267.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.4Season APEX788.1

91.1Auto86.6

248.1Teleop248.8

102.3Endgame92.1

70Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	83
teleop	223	214
endgame	61	145
foul	5	35
total	401	477

Result

Final score

401 – 477

Prediction missed · off by 40 pts

Match videos

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