FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

388.83 – 395.8

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

384 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.1 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 142.62Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 142.39Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 103.82Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633 ±9.3

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 168.29Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 89.17Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 138.34Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 193, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 193, 3314

Auto

71.4 19%

Teleop

228.1 59%

Endgame

84.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 5401, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 341, 5401, 1676

Auto

78.8 21%

Teleop

213.9 56%

Endgame

89.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score388.8pts

Blue projected score395.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7
Score range: 341–444
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 833 vs event baseline 266.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.1Season APEX633

71.4Auto78.8

228.1Teleop213.9

84.2Endgame89.2

65Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	96
teleop	207	260
endgame	139	78
foul	0	15
total	384	449

Result

Final score

384 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Match videos

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