FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

555.61 – 414.53

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

752 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 150 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 836.1 ±8.7

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 256.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 87.25Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 212.11Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.9 ±9.3

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 133.2Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 141.54Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 139.79Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 2607, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

555.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 2607, 2539

Auto

103.2 19%

Teleop

307.3 56%

Endgame

134.6 25%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2590, 1089, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 1089, 1218

Auto

80.3 20%

Teleop

234.7 57%

Endgame

96.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score555.6pts

Blue projected score414.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.1
Score range: 367–604
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1063 vs event baseline 264.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

836.1Season APEX616.9

103.2Auto80.3

307.3Teleop234.7

134.6Endgame96.4

122Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	172	47
teleop	400	158
endgame	180	106
foul	0	0
total	752	311

Result

Final score

752 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 150 pts

Match videos

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